Finance2007   Finance for personal business

Managing a global portfolio of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is a great way to build a diversified portfolio with exposure to equities around the globe. Fortunately, you need not be a rocket scientist to do this, but many investors fail to observe some basic guidelines, and it can get them into real trouble. Follow these eight steps and sleep easier.

1. Liquidity Comes First: Before you even think of building an investment portfolio, you should set aside about six months of income in a rainy day account. This could be put into a money market fund or U.S. Treasury securities. Having this money set aside will ease your mind and allow you to be more open and creative with your global portfolios.

2. Separate Portfolios: You should separate your core conservative portfolio from your growth portfolios. With the core conservative portfolio, your top priority is capital preservation, and growth is a secondary consideration. Your growth portfolios are more speculative, with capital growth as the primary goal.

3. Really Diversify Your Portfolios: You need positions in your portfolios that are likely to offset each other as unexpected events and market movements become a reality. This is not accomplished with different sectors of ETFs or a mix of small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap ETFs. Rather the goal is to have some investments that are on both sides of risks.

For example, if the U.S. dollar declines, have some investments in precious metals or denominated in other currencies, such as Switzerland or Australia or Singapore ETFs. If inflation heats up, have some investments that hedge this risk such as timber, gold or Treasury inflation-protected bonds (TIPs). If political events or policies in one country take a turn for the worst, it is helpful to have investments in other well-developed countries to offset any loss of value. You get the idea, spread your risk and avoid having one ETF account for more than 5%-10% of your core portfolio.

4. Be Careful Which Countries You Pick: You need some guidelines to help keep you from getting carried away and having too concentrated a position in a particular country or region. In particular, take a good look at the following: 1) the stability and overall political and corporate governance; 2) the legal environment, respect for contracts, low levels of corruption, due process and rule of law; 3) the macroeconomic environment including fiscal discipline and currency strength; and 4) political risks that could affect financial markets.

Keep in mind that the quality of the countries you choose to invest in is the primary but not the only factor. The price or valuation of a countrys stock market is also extremely important. Oftentimes, the best time to buy into a countrys stock market is when it is beaten down, but there are signs that its economic and political problems will sharply improve. If you have a long-term perspective, you might consider annuities specially structured for ETF portfolios.

5. Minimize Company Risk by using our buy countries, not stocks strategy. Instead of trying to pick the best three stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, why not just minimize company risk by buying the iShares MSCI Japan Index, which tracks the Nikkei 225 and spreads this risk across 225 Japanese companies.

6. Monitor ETF Country And Company Exposure: Be careful to look under the hood of ETFs to see where your money is going. For example, lets look at the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF. It invests in 26 different countries, so it is natural to think that you will get broad exposure to all 26 countries. You would be wrong: 50% of your investment in this fund is going to four countries: South Korea, South Africa, Taiwan and China. In addition, incredibly, 7.5% is going to one company, Samsung Electronics of South Korea.

The same is true for the MSCI Europe, Asia and Far East index. It contains 21 developed countries, but 48% of the money you invest would go to just two: Japan and the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, less than 1% would go to Singapore and Ireland! Country specific ETFs such as the new iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index can also have a fair amount of concentrated risk. Although the China ETF tracks a basket of 25 companies, the largest five companies account for nearly 50% of your exposure.

7. Cut Losses With A Trailing Stop-Loss Policy And ETF Put Options: We have all been there. You buy a stock or fund, and it appreciates in value rapidly. Then it stumbles and begins to decline. What do you do? Should you buy more, let it ride, or sell? Save yourself a lot of pain and agony by following a simple rule. If a position ever falls more than 20% from its high, sell it immediately and reassess the situation. If you invest in an ETF with a sizable downside risk, why not spend a few hundred dollars to purchase a put-option as an insurance policy?

8. Rebalance Your Portfolio: At least annually, you need to make some changes so that you are not overly exposed to countries that have higher risk factors and volatility. One way is by selling some shares of your winners and increasing exposure to under performers. This accomplishes another goal, locking in gains and taking some money off the table. Remember, only a fool holds out for top dollar, especially in the more volatile emerging market countries.

Building your portfolios with low-cost, tax-efficient ETFs is a smart strategy, but dont set it on auto pilot.

For more information call 877-221-1496

Get acquainted with a practical guide on the easiest games that you can play online. And once you read this article, you will find that you have at least stopped losing all your money. If you follow the advice well and to the dot, you will also learn how to start winning cash from other players or by beating the casino. Sounds interesting? It is.

Note that the games you must look out for are those where the house edge is very low. If these are hard to find at the casino you have entered, look for those games that depend more on skill than on luck. Some of these include blackjack and poker. The games to avoid because they depend solely on luck are any of the slot machine games such as Caribbean Stud or the regular or progressive slot jackpots. These rely only on luck and the house edge there is against you.

What is a House Edge?
Since the casinos and betting establishments are in it for making money, they have created an artificial method to gain leverage over the players. This is what they have termed house edge. What it means is that over and above what you win, the casinos deduct a certain amount for themselves. It is something like insurance but only for them and not for you. But the casinos do not actually do this. Instead, they have inserted these odds into the game winnings so that you do not notice it. When you win, you are paid according to the newly calculated odds and you are no wiser.

For instance, if you walk over to a casino and place a bet of ten dollars on a roulette table. (For arguments sake, let us also suppose it was an American roulette table.) If you win, you should be given three hundred and seventy dollars because the true odds is thirty-seven to one. Instead, you will only get three hundred and fifty dollars according to the odds of thirty-five to one. This is what I was referring to in the previous paragraph. What has happened is that you have lost twenty dollars to the casino as part of the house edge.

Playing Poker:
Pick and play this exceptional game because ,here, you are not competing against the house at all. It is other players like you who you are up against. Do battle against them and defeat them for cash. No house edge comes in the way here, but you do pay a small part of the money you win to the casino as a commission. This winning commission is called rake, and its so minute that you do not feel it pinch your pocket.

In addition, this is one of the best games to play if you are good at it and if you have razor-sharp skills. You will be able to mint money like crazy if you can read other expressions and count the cards well. You can also pick from a variety of game variations such as Red Dog Poker and Texas Holdem.

Playing Blackjack:
This is one of those games that the casino does not like you playing. If it was up to the betting establishments, they would remove these tables altogether. Why? Because the edge for them is only a half percent! Thus, is you play well by remembering that you have to beat the dealer and not reach 21, you stand a big chance of accumulating a large sum. I also suggest you brush up on your mathematical skills.

If you wish, learn how to count cards, but be careful. Because card counting works, casinos have banned it. All you have to do is count the colored cards (the cards that are ten and above). Then, it will be easier to decide which bet to make and which not to make. Practice again and again at home because you not only have to master this skill but you also have to learn to do it silently so that the casinos do not catch on.

Video Poker:
This is a game very much like one of the many regular and progressive slot machines games you will run into at a casino, but it is different. Unlike slots, skill plays a big part in the results, and thus you have a bigger chance of winning than at one of the slot machines.

But, before you begin, glance at the payment structure pasted on the machine. You should make your gaming decisions based on the house odds and payment structures of the machine.

Frugal living requires skills and ways of looking at things that help you take advantage of the money-saving opportunities in life. The truly frugal person makes these into habits. Six of these habits are outlined below. These are techniques that can be learned in a matter of a day or two, and made into new habits a few weeks. Then they will save money for you for the rest of your life.

1. Frugal living requires a knowledge of values. How can you get a great deal on a car if you don’t know what a great deal is. Get in the habit of educating yourself on prices, especially before you’re ready to buy anything that costs a lot. It takes a few hours of looking at listings for sale, for example, to know what homes are selling for in an area, but this is knowledge that can save you thousands.

2. Learn from other people. Most of us know someone who always gets the best deal on cars, boats, homes, or even groceries. Why not ask him or her how they do it! One person will tell you that the cheapest coffee in town is 3 per cup, while another will say 50 cents. Ask the latter about coffee shops. People near you are living a good life on half of what you make. Investigate that. See how others do things, and you’ll know your options.

3. Frugal living means always looking for alternatives. You might have just as much fun taking a discount trip to Mexico as you would going to Jamaica. Maybe you happen to enjoy pizza more than fine French dining. If so, why not skip the expensive restaurant and call Dominoes. This isn’t about sacrificing, but about getting even more of what you really enjoy by paying less for cheaper alternatives that work just as well.

4. Pay cash. What happens when everything you buy costs an additional 20% because of the interest you pay over the years? You can’t buy as much! Everything is cheaper when paid for in cash instead of credit. If you want that new patio set, divide the price by the number of weeks you can wait to get it. Set aside that much each week, and buy it for cash when you have the money. Not only do you save on interest, but you’ll often get a better price when you pay cash.

5. Learn to do the math. Did you really save 400 on that car if it costs you 500 more in gas each year? Did you know that some stores are cashing in on shopper’s assumptions that larger is cheaper? It’s true. That gallon of pickles might actually cost more than four quart jars. Make it a habit to do the math if you want to save money.

6. Tell people what you need. Mention it in conversations. Many people get free or cheap things, just because they talk. For example, a neighbor wanted to upgrade her living room debt, and was thrilled that I would take her three-month-old couch off her hands for 30. I sure am glad that I mentioned I was looking for one. You need to make this little trick a part of your frugal living habits.

Copyright 2006 Rafael Velez

Although it may sound frightening and risky to many investors, if handled correctly, commodities could be the missing piece of an investors portfolio. What exactly are commodities? Commodities are any mass goods traded on an exchange or in a cash market including: cocoa, coffee, eggs, lumber, orange juice, soybeans and sugar just to name a few. Industrial metals are also included with copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, silver, and lead ranking among the most popular industrial metals holdings. Finally, the most widely followed commodities include oil, natural gas and gold.

The diversification benefits equal or surpass those of other asset classes like fixed income and real estate. The primary reason for this is their correlation, or lack thereof, to the stock market as represented by the S&P 500 (Correlation describes how similar the price movement is between two investments). Commodities have historically exhibited absolutely no correlation to the stock market or any of the bond market indices. In fact, they have a negative correlation. This non-similar pattern of performance allows an investor to minimize volatility and protect capital in down markets. Overall, these factors help to decrease overall risk in a portfolio of investments. In short, commodities have historically been a good compliment to a traditional stock, bond and real estate portfolio.

When commodities are utilized as a stand-alone investment, commodities are relatively volatile, exhibiting wild price swings. At times, they are also illiquid, prohibiting the investor from exiting a position that is dropping rapidly. Another factor to be aware of when investing in commodities is the unusual income taxation. Most notably, investors are taxed each year on their share of the profits, if there are profits, regardless of whether the investment has been sold. This is a significant disadvantage compared to investments in stocks, because one does not pay income taxes until the stock is actually sold. Finally, fees to implement a commodities strategy are significantly higher than for those of traditional mutual funds, for example. For these reasons, it is best to only consider 5-20% of ones portfolio for this strategy.

At a time when stocks and bonds are predicted by most academics and investment gurus such as Warren Buffet, Bill Gross of PIMCO, and Jeremy Grantham of Grantham, Mayer, and Van Otterloo, to produce 5.0% returns or less over the next decade due to historically high market valuations. On a historical basis, commodities are inexpensively priced and substantial upside potential is possible. U.S. inflation is historically low right now but with the effects of massive fiscal, monetary policy and already robust consumer spending, raw goods prices will inevitably increase. When they do, commodity indices will follow. As inflation gradually rises in 2006 and beyond, industrial metals prices will rise as investors begin to direct large amounts of money into these hard asset commodities. The high correlation between commodities and inflation provide an important hedge against considerable losses in traditional financial instruments such as stocks and bonds.

In his recent book Hot Commodities, author and renowned investor Jim Rogers summed it up this way:

The 1980s and 1990s saw a bear market in commodities. Prices had fallen to levels (adjusted for inflation) not seen since the Great Depression.

For 130 years, stocks and commodities have alternated leadership in regular cycles averaging 18 years.

The long bear market in commodities has created a sharp reduction in capacity and thus large supply-and-demand imbalances.

As economies in Asia continue to grow, there will be a strong worldwide demand for all commodities.

Historically, the prices of commodities show a negative correlation to the prices moves of stocks, bonds and other financial instruments.

Commodity prices can rise even when the economy is stuck in reverse and their returns outpace inflation.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and other banks in the world have been pursuing a policy of debasing their paper currencies.

The U.S. Federal Reserves policy of monetary stimulus and rapid credit expansion will continue to push up the prices of hard assets such as precious metals and other commodities.

History shows that war and political chaos only push commodities prices higher.

Commodities also provide a tactical play on the current weakness in the U.S. Dollar. As other currencies such as the Euro and Yen appreciate versus the dollar, foreign buyers can buy less goods with the same amount of currency. This artificially increases demand, and subsequently drives up the prices of commodities. Currently, effects of this phenomenon can be seen best in the gold and silver markets as prices have risen dramatically over the past year.

Commodities provide a play on globalization by their ability to aid in the improvement of the global economy. This is due to the fact that prices for industrial materials will increase as demand for industrial goods increase. As countries such as China and other emerging market economies develop, they will require more raw materials. This is especially true for industrial metals. China continues to develop at a rapid pace and consequently, their demand for raw materials continues to rise. In fact, Chinas iron ore demand has increased from 5% of the worlds supply to almost 50% over the past twelve years.

Commodities have proven to be excellent investments over the last few years. There are a number of types of investment vehicles to take advantage of this great diversification play. Many of our client portfolios have benefited from this recent performance. With only small allocations to hard assets, most client portfolios have delivered returns that were twice the performance of traditional stock and bond portfolios.

Many experts agree that U.S. stocks and bonds will, in all likelihood, generate significantly lower returns over the next decade. Commodities on the other hand may have the potential for the highest returns since the 1970s due to a worldwide economic expansion especially from emerging market countries.